I have been observing Second Life and Linden Lab every day for the last 4 1/2 years (yep, I am Bucky Barkley there). Around January 2009, I started wondering what event would trigger a migration to OpenSim. Gwyneth had written a great post back then, which has helped shaped my thinking.
When I saw the announcement this past Monday that Linden Lab would discontinue the 50% discount for educators and non-profits, with less than 3 months notice, I thought “aha! this is the trigger event!”. There has been much consternation in the SL community lately, but now it has reached the point where a sizable group will take action. For Linden Lab to have done this to a group of people who have been some of their strongest supporters, is nothing less than a Public Relations disaster.
A migration is in the offing. Many will be leaving Second Life, and will be heading to OpenSim-based grids. It creates Opportunity.
You may say “Daniel! You are overreacting! Let those educators and non-profits go! Who needs them!?”…
…And you are entitled to say that :-)
But I say this is something that triggers a whole series of events. I think that Linden Lab is going to run into some unintended consequences. They may think that a certain percentage of their user base will migrate, and that it will be an isolated event.
But that is not all that will happen…
When the non-profits and educators go to OpenSim-based grids, they will bring with them a bit of money, expectations, and a lot of drive. I will quote John Lester (Pathfinder). He is a former Linden, and in his post “With every Exodus comes Expansion: Educators and Non-profits in Second Life“, he wrote:
nothing drives rapid platform development like a big influx of eager users
Therein Lies Opportunity. The needs, funds, and energy of the non-profits and educators will speed up the development progress of OpenSim and OpenSim-based grids. This progress, in turn, will make migrating that much more attractive to other groups that are not directly affected by the pricing increase. Educators and Non-Profits dont exist in a bubble; they have friends in other communities, and they shop a bit as well. Their needs, influence, and experiences ripple far beyond their sphere.
I have spent 4 years working on projects in the Info Island Archipelago, and I can say firsthand that there is no clear boundary between the folks there and all of the other communities in SL. It would appear that LL is taking a gamble that there will be a limited, community specific migration. They have poked at an anthill, and have not figured just how fast all the sleepy ants within will awake, spring into action, and migrate.
The trick for everyone involved is to get past being upset with Linden Lab, and to work together to get things going in brave new OpenSim worlds. There is a need for content creators, tool providers, builders, event coordinators, and for many other talents to come along for the ride. It is a time for all manner of specialists to help each other bootstrap into the post-Second Life era.
So, like I said, Therein Lies Opportunity. Along with this, those who will need help should be aware of the following:
Not every “solution provider” will be competent. Not every grid host will be on the level. Not every Virtual Worlds Consultant will know what they are doing. Look for proven experience, real names, and always have a Plan B.
As with everything else, do your research before committing time and money. There are many people right now who are very happy with their projects in OpenSim. There are failures as well…
…It’s just like the web. Moving away from the walled garden of SL means that more things need to be considered (who is my host? am I on the HyperGrid? How do I find people, places, and things that are scattered across grids?) But, along with that, there is much more control and reward. As one example, you can backup your own work, move to another provider, and restore it.
These are pioneering days. Second Life has served its purpose as an excellent introduction to Virtual Worlds. They are one chapter in our books.
It’s time to start writing the next chapter, and Therein Lies Opportunity.